Rubbish Check
ABC News Business (AP wire) · 31 July 2026 source

“Oil companies are expected to reap big profits because of US-Iran conflict”

R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates ABC News/AP's claim that oil companies are set to "reap big profits" from the US-Iran conflict a 2/10 because the forecast was confirmed by real numbers, Exxon's Q2 profit doubled to $14.53 billion, up 105% year-on-year, matching the framing almost exactly.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. This is close to base fact: a forward-looking claim, made before earnings, that lines up with the actual results and with independent third-party data (Global Witness). The only iteration away from pure cleanliness is that the headline generalizes "oil companies" as uniform winners, when the article's own reporting shows some producers, particularly Middle Eastern ones with damaged infrastructure, are losing money in the same conflict.

What actually happened

Analysts expected Exxon Mobil and Chevron's Q2 earnings, released the Friday this piece was published, to show large profits after Brent crude spiked from roughly $70 to over $100 a barrel, peaking near $126, once fighting between Iran and the US disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Six of Europe's largest oil companies posted first-quarter profits of $22 billion altogether, a total which was 43% higher than the same time last year, according to Global Witness, a nonprofit organization that investigates environmental problems.

Key facts

  • Six of Europe's largest oil companies posted combined first-quarter profits of $22 billion, more than 40% higher than the same time last year, per Global Witness's analysis of quarterly filings.
  • Corroborating wire copy reports Exxon Mobil's Q2 profit doubled to $14.53 billion, up 105% year-on-year, confirming the "big profits" forecast in the headline.
  • Brent crude soared from about $70 to above $100 a barrel for much of March, April and May, at one point reaching $126, per the article's own reporting; US crude ricocheted from $68 to $115 a barrel over the same quarter.
  • Refinery "crack spreads" hit $50-60 per barrel in late July versus a normal $20-25 range, per Tom Seng of Texas Christian University.
  • Average US gasoline reached $4.10 a gallon this week, about $1 higher than the same point last year, up from below $3 before US-Israel strikes on Iran began.

What to watch for

Watch whether Exxon and Chevron's actual Q2 filings match analyst expectations line for line, and whether the windfall-tax bills from Whitehouse and Khanna gain traction now that real profit figures are in. Also track whether Middle Eastern producers' losses, flagged by economist Timothy Fitzgerald as the flip side of this story, get equal coverage once the "big profits" headline cycle ends.

About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
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