“White House says it’s losing $19B-$26B a year in revenue as countries dodge tariffs”
What actually happened
The White House released a report on transshipping, the practice of routing exports through third countries to dodge U.S. tariffs, and estimated resulting federal revenue losses of $19 billion to $26 billion a year. The report specifically highlights that China responded to new tariffs in 2018 by sending their goods to other nations ranging from Mexico to Malaysia for packaging and limited assembly, a practice known as transshipping. Trade adviser Peter Navarro told reporters on a conference call that China is laundering its exports through more than 40 countries, and said new trade frameworks would penalize partners who enable the practice.
Key facts
- Headline figure: the Trump White House said in a new report on Thursday that countries are routing their exports through third countries to avoid U.S. tariffs, estimating that there are tax revenue losses of $19 billion to $26 billion annually.
- The underlying input for that estimate is far shakier than the headline implies: the report includes a range of estimates for the scale of transshipments to avoid tariffs, citing government and private sector numbers to estimate roughly $34.2 billion to $303 billion of goods transshipped each year.
- It used a central figure of $75 billion worth of goods being transshipped to estimate how much in tax revenues have been lost.
- Timing: the report lands ahead of a planned September visit by Chinese Leader Xi Jinping, giving the administration a negotiating cudgel just as talks approach.
- Context the headline omits entirely: America continues to import more than it exports to the rest of the world, but the trade imbalance so far this year at $371 billion is running about $189 billion lower that it did during the same period last year.
What to watch for
- Watch whether Navarro's $19B-$26B figure gets independently modelled by economists outside the administration; his past tariff-revenue projections have drawn pushback from independent analysts.
- Watch for the CBP AI transshipment-detection prototype Navarro mentioned; if it produces actual enforcement data, that will be the real test of whether the estimate holds up.
- Watch how the September Xi visit shapes any revised transshipment numbers, since this report doubles as leverage ahead of that meeting.
Trump White House says it’s losing $19B-$26B a year in revenue as countries dodge tariffs (AP via WRAL)Trump White House says it’s losing $19B-$26B a year in revenue as countries dodge tariffs (AP via KOB)Independent Analyses Contradict Navarro’s $6 Trillion-Plus Tariff Revenue Estimate (FactCheck.org)
