Rubbish Check
Forbes Business · 19 August 2026
source“The $40 Trillion National Debt ‘News’ Is A Big Load Of Meaninglessness”
R6/ 10
Spin-heavy
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates Forbes contributor John Tamny's claim that the $40 trillion debt milestone is "meaninglessness" a 6/10 because his own evidence, that yields show zero investor concern, contradicts same-day reporting that the debt arrived early precisely as bond yields were rising.
The Verdict
Spin-heavy. The debt figure itself is accurate, but the column's central claim, that markets are utterly unbothered and the number was "priced long ago," omits the inconvenient detail that Treasury hit $40 trillion months ahead of schedule while yields were climbing, not sitting flat. That's the opposite of "nothing new here."
What actually happened
Treasury data confirmed the U.S. national debt crossed $40 trillion in mid-August 2026. Tamny's column argues the milestone is meaningless because markets price rising debt continuously, and points to 30-year Treasury yields resembling 2007 levels as proof investors aren't worried, despite debt being roughly six times higher now than in 2007.
Key facts
- Multiple outlets confirmed the debt milestone the same week: "Total U.S. debt has topped $40 trillion for the first time, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday, drawing fresh warnings that a fiscal crisis is brewing."
- "The U.S. national debt is likely to surpass $40 trillion this week, months earlier than forecasters previously expected in part because of billions of dollars in lost revenue."
- Treasury reported a $432.3 billion deficit in July, its highest monthly level in more than five years, with the debt having more than doubled from $19.4 trillion a decade earlier.
- Separately, NPR's same-day coverage frames the yield move in the opposite direction Tamny claims: "That's leading nervous investors to demand higher interest rates, pushing up borrowing costs for everyone else."
- Tamny's core comparison, that the 30-year yield today matches 2007 levels despite debt being ~6x higher, is his own assertion within the column and was not independently verified against a primary Treasury yield series in this check.
What to watch for
Watch whether 30-year yields keep climbing through the rest of 2026, that would directly undercut the "markets don't care" thesis. Also watch the next monthly deficit print; a second consecutive five-year-high reading would make "priced in and meaningless" a much harder sell.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
