“LARRY KUDLOW: Rising Bond Yields from Trumpian Growth, not Trumpian Inflation”

What actually happened

Kudlow argues the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields, roughly 35 basis points on the 30-year and about 50 basis points on the 10-year this year, is driven by stronger real growth expectations rather than inflation fears. He points to CPI breakeven rates that have stayed roughly flat while the real (TIPS) yield component has climbed, and frames current 4%-plus yields as a "normalization" toward pre-2008 levels rather than a warning sign.

Key facts

• Market data corroborates the mechanism: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (T10YIE) sat around 2.28% in late July 2026, broadly stable rather than rising sharply.
• 10-year TIPS real yields were around 2.3% in mid-2026, consistent with Kudlow's claim that the real-yield component, not the inflation component, has driven nominal yields higher.
• Kudlow's specific figures (30-year up ~35bps, 10-year up ~50bps, breakeven move under 5bps) come only from his own column text; independent confirmation of the exact basis-point moves was not separately verified beyond the directional breakeven/real-yield split.
• The column attributes the entire real-yield increase to "faster, more powerful growth" without citing any economist, Fed official, or bond strategist naming term premium, fiscal deficits, or Treasury issuance supply as contributing factors, all standard alternative explanations in bond-market commentary.

What to watch for

• Watch whether the 10-year breakeven stays anchored near 2.2-2.3% or starts climbing, that would undercut the "it's growth, not inflation" thesis.
• Watch for Fed commentary or Treasury auction demand data (bid-to-cover ratios) in coming weeks, weak demand would point toward supply/term-premium pressure rather than pure growth optimism.
• Watch whether other outlets' coverage of the same yield move cites term premium or deficit concerns; if so, that confirms this column selectively picked the flattering explanation.