Rubbish Check
ABC News Business · August 26, 2026
source“Key inflation gauge remains elevated during Iran conflict and ongoing US trade fights”
R3/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
12345678910
In short
Rubbish Talk rates ABC News's headline that inflation "remains elevated during Iran conflict and ongoing US trade fights" a 3/10 because the PCE figures it cites are accurate and unchanged from June as reported, but the headline implies the Iran conflict is driving this month's number when the report itself shows energy prices actually fell in July.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The core numbers, 3.7% headline PCE and 3.3% core, both unchanged from June, are reported straight and match the primary data. The one iteration of spin is the causal frame: pairing "elevated" inflation with "Iran conflict" in the same breath implies the war is pushing this month's reading up, when the article's own numbers show gas and energy prices fell 2.7% in July and the rebound to $4.10/gallon happened afterward, in August.
What actually happened
The Commerce Department's PCE report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, showed prices up 3.7% year-over-year in July, unchanged from June, with core PCE (ex-food and energy) also flat at 3.3%. Both figures landed slightly hotter than economists expected. The report arrived alongside a weak second GDP estimate and ahead of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
Key facts
- Headline PCE: 3.7% year-over-year in July, unchanged from June; multiple outlets confirm this came in a touch above the roughly 3.6% consensus.
- Core PCE: 3.3% year-over-year, unchanged from June, in line with forecasts.
- Monthly moves: headline PCE +0.2% (after -0.1% in June, +0.5% in May); core PCE +0.2% (after +0.1% in June).
- Energy prices fell 2.7% month-over-month in July; groceries slipped 0.1%. Car prices rose 0.4%, housing/utilities rose 0.3%.
- Real income rose 0.4% in July, the best showing since February; inflation-adjusted spending was flat.
- Q2 GDP growth revised to a 1.5% annual rate, down from 2.1% in Q1.
- Gas prices had rebounded to $4.10/gallon by the time of publication, per AAA, a post-report development, not a July driver.
What to watch for
Watch whether August's PCE report, capturing the actual gas-price rebound, shows a clearer link between the Iran conflict and headline inflation than July's data did. Also watch Warsh's Jackson Hole speech for how the Fed frames the split between officials wanting to hold rates and those pushing for hikes, and whether the 30-year Treasury yield keeps falling after Bessent's buyback announcement.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
