“‘Bond market turmoil gives UK a £6bn debt interest headache as borrowing costs jump to highest level since 1998’”

What actually happened

UK gilt yields have climbed through 2026 on inflation, heavy borrowing and political instability, with long-dated gilts trading near levels last seen in 1998. Panmure Liberum economist Simon French modelled that if current market-implied yields hold, higher borrowing costs could add roughly £6bn to debt interest by the 2029/30 fiscal year, based on a 70 basis-point gap between current 20-year gilt yields and the OBR's Spring Forecast assumption.

Key facts

• 30-year gilt yield: 5.87%, the highest since 1998, as market data shows yields around 5.78-5.89% through 2026.
• 10-year gilt yield: 5.15%, described in the article as only briefly surpassed three times since 1998; separate reporting shows 10-year yields hitting 5.21% on 1 September, the highest since 2008, not 1998.
• The £6bn figure is Simon French's estimate that a 70bp gap versus the OBR's Spring Forecast, "applied across the curve," would add £6bn to debt interest by 2029/30, a forward projection, not a current-year cost.
• Actual current interest spend: £109bn in 2025/26, equivalent to 3.6% of GDP and 8% of public spending, near a 50-year high, a harder, present-tense figure the headline skips past.
• July borrowing came in at £1.8bn versus an OBR-forecast £500m surplus, £2.3bn worse than expected.

What to watch for

Watch whether the £6bn figure survives contact with the actual October 28 Budget, since it rests on yields holding at current levels for years, not a locked-in cost. Also watch whether other outlets distinguish long-dated gilt records (1998) from the 10-year benchmark (2008) as clearly as the Mail's own body text does.