Rubbish Check
CBS MoneyWatch · September 11, 2026
source“Fed rate hike likelihood jumps to nearly 90% after hotter CPI report”
R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates CBS MoneyWatch's claim that Fed rate hike odds jumped to "nearly 90%" a 2/10 because that figure matches CME FedWatch's own market pricing cited in the article, moving from 70% before the CPI release to just under 90% after it.
The Verdict
Lightly altered, not spun. The headline states a specific, attributable number and it checks out against the source the article names. The only soft spot is that "likelihood" doesn't clarify this is a futures-market implied probability that can (and did) swing 20 points in a single day, not a fixed forecast, but that's a minor omission rather than a distortion.
What actually happened
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' August CPI report came in hotter than forecast, and the article reports that the Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in August, in line with July's reading but higher than the 3.3% economists were forecasting, while core prices rose 0.3% from July, an acceleration from the previous month's 0.2% increase. Following the release, the likelihood of a rate hike at the Fed's Sept. 16 meeting jumped to nearly 90%, up from 70% on Thursday, according to CME FedWatch. Economists at EY-Parthenon and Nationwide both revised their calls to a 25-basis-point hike on the back of the data.
Key facts
- CPI: 3.4% YoY in August, above the 3.3% forecast, unchanged from July.
- Core CPI: +0.3% MoM, up from +0.2% in July, and above expectations.
- Gasoline prices up 27.4% YoY, accounting for a third of the monthly CPI gain.
- CME FedWatch hike probability: ~90% post-CPI, up from 70% the day before.
- EY-Parthenon shifted its call from "hold" to a 25bp hike; Capital Economics projects further hikes in December and March 2027.
- At the July meeting, the Fed held rates but three of twelve FOMC members dissented in favor of a hike.
What to watch for
Watch whether that 90% figure holds through the Sept. 16 decision, given it already moved 20 points in one trading day and remains a market-implied probability rather than a locked-in outcome. Also worth tracking: whether next month's coverage credits the hike to the CPI print alone or connects it to the Iran-war oil shock and Brent crude near $105 that the article flags as the deeper driver.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
