Rubbish Check
Daily Mail Money · 16 September 2026
source“Food prices to soar for two years and energy prices forecast to jump 25%”
R3/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Daily Mail's claim that food prices will "soar for two years" and energy will "jump 25%" a 3/10 because both figures trace directly to the cited forecasts, IGD and Bloomberg Economics, with the only spin being the headline's use of the top end of IGD's forecast range rather than its midpoint.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. Both headline numbers are real, sourced forecasts rather than invented figures, but the Mail reaches for the highest number in IGD's published range (6.6%) instead of the midpoint, and compresses two separate reports, a food-industry range forecast and a bank's point estimate, into one headline as if they carry equal certainty.
What actually happened
The Institute of Grocery Distribution forecast UK food inflation rising from 2.9-3.9% this year to 5.6-6.6% in 2027 and 5.3-6.3% in 2028, reversing an earlier easing. Separately, Bloomberg Economics forecast Ofgem's energy price cap will rise roughly 25% in January, adding £427 to take the typical annual bill to about £2,150.
Key facts
- IGD's actual forecast is a range: 2.9-3.9% (2026), 5.6-6.6% (2027), 5.3-6.3% (2028). The headline's "6.6%" and "soar" language reflects the top of that range, confirmed by independent reporting of the same IGD release.
- Bloomberg Economics' 25% figure and the £427/£2,150 numbers match exactly across multiple independent write-ups of the same note, including Bloomberg's own report.
- IGD's chief economist attributed the reversal to energy costs and weather shocks (El Nino) being "delayed, not removed," not to domestic policy.
- The article separately reports pay growth of 2.9% against public-sector pay rises of 6.3% and petrol/diesel at multi-year highs, all figures that check out against the reporting but sit outside the headline's two core claims.
What to watch for
- Ofgem's actual January price-cap announcement, due before the January bill hits, will confirm or undercut the Bloomberg estimate; energy futures used in the calculation run to mid-November and can still move.
- Watch whether coverage keeps citing IGD's upper bound (6.6%) as if it were the central forecast rather than the top of a 1-point range.
- The political framing around PM Burnham deserves scrutiny next cycle: both drivers cited (Middle East conflict, El Nino) are exogenous shocks, not domestic policy failures, though the piece does disclose this in the body.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
