Rubbish Check
Daily Mail Money · 25 September 2026
source“Andrew Bailey says it will ‘get harder’ to keep rates on hold as energy prices rise – in a blow to borrowers as mortgage deals soar towards 6%”
R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Daily Mail's claim that Andrew Bailey warned it will "get harder" to hold rates a 2/10 because the quote is accurately attributed and the mortgage figures cited (average two-year fix at 5.92%, five-year at 5.94%) are real Moneyfacts data that genuinely sit just below, not at, 6%.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. This is close to the base fact: Bailey's quote is reported faithfully, the MPC's 6-3 hold is correctly stated, and "soar towards 6%" is a defensible compression of an average that Moneyfacts itself describes as "uncomfortably close to 6 per cent… but below that benchmark." The only nitpick is that "soar" is a punchy verb for what the data confirms is a genuine, sharp repricing, not an invented one.
What actually happened
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold rates at 3.75%, with three members wanting an immediate hike. Speaking at an Oxford conference, governor Andrew Bailey said sustained high energy prices would make holding rates harder to justify, adding to hawkish signals from deputy governors Sarah Breeden and Clare Lombardelli. Mortgage rates have already risen sharply since the Iran conflict pushed oil above $100 a barrel.
Key facts
- MPC voted 6-3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three dissenters wanting a rise to 4%.
- Bank forecasts a 24% jump in January energy bills, pushing inflation above 4%.
- Cheapest two-year fixed mortgage rose from 3.51% (pre-war) to 4.75%.
- Average two-year fix rose from 4.83% to 5.92%; average five-year fix from 4.95% to 5.94%.
- Moneyfacts' Adam French said average rates are "uncomfortably close to 6 per cent… but below that benchmark, at least for now."
- Markets price a November hike plus three more through 2027, taking Bank Rate to 4.75%.
What to watch for
- The next MPC meeting (5 November) will confirm whether markets' hawkish pricing was right; a hold would undercut the "drumbeat" narrative built here.
- Watch whether average mortgage rates actually cross 6% (last seen December 2023), which would validate the headline's framing rather than just approach it.
- Inflation data for Q1 2027 will show if the energy-driven spike (forecast to peak at 4.1%) proves temporary, as Bailey suggested it might.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
