Rubbish Check
Daily Mail Money · 29 September 2026
source“Food prices to soar for two years and energy prices forecast to jump 25%”
R3/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates Daily Mail Money's claim that food prices will "soar for two years" and energy will "jump 25%" a 3/10 because the 25% energy figure matches the cited Bloomberg Economics forecast exactly, while "soar" overstates an IGD food-inflation forecast that only reaches 5.6-6.6% and 5.3-6.3% across the two years cited.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The energy figure is a clean lift from the primary forecast with no distortion, but "soar" is an emotive upgrade on what the IGD itself frames as mid-single-digit inflation accelerating from a lower base, and the headline compresses a range into a single dramatic verb.
What actually happened
The Institute of Grocery Distribution forecast food inflation accelerating after easing earlier in the year, projecting 5.6-6.6% for 2027 and 5.3-6.3% for 2028. Separately, Bloomberg Economics forecast the Ofgem price cap rising 25% in January, adding £427 to typical annual bills, taking them to £2,150.
Key facts
- IGD forecast: food inflation 2.9%-3.9% for the current year, rising to 5.6%-6.6% in 2027, then 5.3%-6.3% in 2028.
- Bloomberg Economics forecast: Ofgem price cap up 25% in January, lifting typical annual bills by £427 to £2,150.
- Context omitted from the headline: retailers had been holding prices down earlier in the year via advance buying and ample stock, per IGD's own account.
- Pay context in the same article: average pay growth 2.9% against inflation expected to climb above 3%, versus public-sector pay growth of 6.3%.
What to watch for
Watch whether the IGD's forecast range narrows or widens when its next quarterly update lands, and whether Ofgem's actual January cap announcement matches Bloomberg's 25% call or comes in lower, as happened with some past cap forecasts. Also watch whether other outlets use the low end of IGD's range (5.3%-5.6%) rather than the high end (6.3%-6.6%) that the Mail leads with.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
