“‘Egg prices have tumbled since Trump returned to office. Here’s why’”

What actually happened

The average cost of a dozen eggs when Trump took office in January 2025 was $4.95, while the typical price this August was just $2.27, according to the article's cited federal data. Avian flu wiped out flocks across the U.S. and ate into domestic egg supplies, causing retail prices to take off, then prices went down again as flocks recovered, which an economist called the dominant factor.

Key facts

• BLS data confirms the January 2025 starting point exactly: the national average for a dozen Grade A large eggs was $4.953 that month, matching the article's $4.95 figure.
• Nearly 51 million egg-laying hens died or were euthanized between October 2024 and March 2025 alone, per USDA's Economic Research Service, driving the spike the decline is measured against.
• The cost of a dozen eggs reached a record high of $6.23 in March 2025, just two months into Trump's second term, meaning prices rose sharply under Trump before falling.
• Mark Jordan of LEAP Market Analytics said "90-95% of the impact that we've seen in terms of prices coming down has just been some measure of biosecurity success and some measure of, you know, luck".
• U.S. egg imports in 2025 reached 121 million dozen-equivalent, way up from 29.8 million dozen-equivalent the previous year, though Jordan called the impact on the roughly 90-billion-egg U.S. industry "a small impact".
• Poultry farmers have faced pressure from tariffs and the Iran war pushing up costs for corn, soybean meal, fertilizer and transportation, working against the price-cut narrative.

What to watch for

Avian flu is seasonal and cyclical; any new outbreak this winter could reverse the trend and expose how thin the policy credit really was. Watch whether tariff-driven feed and packaging costs eventually squeeze farm margins enough to push retail prices back up, and whether future coverage keeps citing the "luck" quote or drops it as the midterms approach.