Rubbish Check
ABC News Business · October 8, 2026
source“Average long-term US mortgage rate rises to highest level in nearly 3 years”
R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates ABC News's claim that the average 30-year mortgage rate hit its highest level in nearly three years a 2/10, because the figures check out exactly: 7.40% this week versus a 7.44% peak on November 16, 2023, roughly two years and eleven months earlier.
The Verdict
Lightly altered, bordering on base fact. The headline's "nearly 3 years" framing is arithmetically sound and the piece doesn't hide the ball on causes or consequences: it names the war-driven oil spike and Treasury yield surge as the proximate drivers and reports the hit to home sales and refinancing in the same breath as the rate figure. The only reason this isn't a flat R1 is the headline's passive "rises to" construction, which understates that this is the seventh straight weekly increase, a cumulative run the body discloses but the headline doesn't.
What actually happened
Freddie Mac's benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 7.40% this week, its highest since November 16, 2023, when it stood at 7.44%. The increase marks the seventh consecutive weekly rise, driven by a bond-market selloff tied to war-fueled oil price inflation fears pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2002.
Key facts
- 30-year fixed rate: 7.40% this week, up from 7.28% last week; 6.30% one year ago.
- Prior peak for comparison: 7.44% on November 16, 2023, the last time rates were this high.
- 15-year fixed rate: 6.73% this week, up from 6.60% last week; 5.53% a year ago.
- 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.29% midday Thursday, versus 3.97% before the Iran war began, and is the highest since 2002.
- Rate run-up since the February low of 5.98% equals a 1.42 percentage point increase, adding roughly $376/month on a $400,000 loan.
- Mortgage applications fell for a fifth straight week; refinance applications hit their lowest level since January 2025.
What to watch for
Watch whether the seventh-straight-week streak extends into an eighth, and whether the 10-year Treasury yield keeps tracking oil-driven inflation fears or starts pricing in a ceasefire discount. Existing home sales data for September, due from the National Association of Realtors, will show whether the August slowdown (3.98 million annualized units, a more-than-one-year low) deepens as rates stay above 7.4%.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
