Rubbish Check
CNBC Finance · 6 October 2026
source“Goldman: Diesel prices set to stay high through 2027 as refineries struggle to meet demand”
R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates CNBC's headline that Goldman sees diesel prices staying high through 2027 a 2/10 because the article's own lead line and Goldman's crack-spread forecast support the claim almost word for word, with only a minor firming of language from "may need to" to "set to."
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The headline compresses Goldman's own hedged framing into something slightly more definite, but the core claim, mechanism and numbers all trace cleanly back to the bank's analysts and its published report.
What actually happened
Goldman Sachs told CNBC it expects diesel and jet-fuel crack spreads (the margin refiners earn over crude) to stay elevated through 2027, driven by shrinking refining capacity and recovering fuel demand. The bank's co-head of Asia-Pacific natural resources research, Nikhil Bhandari, said high prices are needed to keep demand in check while refiners struggle to catch up with inventory rebuilding and capacity losses.
Key facts
- Goldman forecasts global diesel and jet-fuel crack spreads will average above $40 per barrel in 2027, versus a usual level around $20: "Goldman forecasts global diesel and jet-fuel crack spreads, the premium refined products command over crude, will average above $40 per barrel in 2027, more than twice their usual level of around $20."
- That forecast holds even as Goldman expects Brent crude to stabilize near $80/barrel: "That is despite the bank expecting Brent crude to stabilize at approximately $80 per barrel as recent crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalize."
- Non-China refining capacity is set to shrink roughly 300,000 barrels per day in 2026, Goldman's second straight year of "negative refining capacity growth": "The bank expects 2026 to be another year of “negative refining capacity growth," as refining capacity outside China is expected to contract by roughly 300,000 barrels per day."
- Roughly 2 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern refining capacity remains offline, compounded by damaged Russian facilities: "roughly 2 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern refining capacity remains offline, Bhandari said, while damaged Russian facilities have further restricted diesel supply."
- Goldman's forecast is explicitly conditional on demand rebounding, a nuance the headline drops: "If there is any demand rebound next year, we think the global refining system will have to hit the highest utilization rate that we have seen in the last two decades."
What to watch for
Watch whether the G7's front-loaded diesel release actually dents prices near-term: it already sent European gasoil futures down 5.75%, but CLSA's Moore called such releases a fix for "a liquidity problem, not the underlying stock problem." Also track whether the "demand rebound" Goldman's forecast hinges on materializes, since without it the refinery-utilization squeeze driving the 2027 price call weakens considerably.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
