Rubbish Check
Daily Mail Money · 18 October 2026
source“Banks poised to post colossal profits buoyed by higher interest rates just as Healey eyes bumper windfall tax”
R3/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Daily Mail's claim that banks face "colossal profits" and a "bumper windfall tax" a 3/10 because the underlying figures (£29bn in H1 profits, up over a fifth, against a reported £7bn tax target) are accurate, with only a loaded adjective and a blurred distinction between a profits surcharge and a QE accounting change doing the spinning.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The numbers check out and the piece is unusually balanced for a tabloid, giving both the IPPR's case for taxing banks and UK Finance's warning of a £20bn growth hit. The only iterations away from the base fact are the adjective "colossal" doing some emotional lifting, and folding a QE accounting deferral into the "windfall tax" framing as if it were the same mechanism as the profits surcharge.
What actually happened
Britain's big four banks reported combined pre-tax profits that are up sharply year-on-year, driven by wider margins between loan and savings rates. Chancellor John Healey is reportedly weighing a package of bank-focused revenue raisers in his October 28 Budget, combining a surcharge increase with a change to how Treasury losses on commercial banks' Bank of England reserves are accounted for. Other outlets confirm the same story: Healey is considering reversing part of Jeremy Hunt's 2023 surcharge cut amid union and think-tank pressure.
Key facts
- Lloyds, NatWest, Barclays and HSBC made combined pre-tax profits of £29billion in H1 2026, up more than a fifth on H1 2025.
- Banks earn roughly £18billion a year on risk-free Bank of England reserves built up under quantitative easing.
- Reversing the bank surcharge cut from 3% to 8% (Hunt's 2023 level) would raise about £2billion; a related LBC report corroborates that the Treasury has lost "£6 billion in revenue from the Tories' senseless bank tax cut" per the TUC, with the TUC separately pushing for a 16% surcharge to raise £24billion over four years.
- Changing the accounting treatment of QE-related reserve losses could save the Treasury "at least £5billion a year" by 2030, per the IPPR; combined with the surcharge rise that's the article's stated £7billion total.
- UK Finance warns a surcharge hike to 8% could cost the economy nearly £20billion over ten years, mostly outside London.
- The current £24billion-a-year fiscal headroom has already been halved by higher government borrowing costs.
What to watch for
Watch whether Healey's Budget actually combines both levers (surcharge plus QE accounting change) or picks one, since the "£7billion" figure is a composite the article itself constructs rather than an announced policy. Also watch how rival outlets frame the IPPR's role: some reporting credits the think tank with a smaller, more targeted surcharge recommendation than the full 3%-to-8% reversal implied here.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
