Rubbish Check
Daily Mail Money · 29 October 2026 source
“Inheritance tax take will surge 66% to £15bn within five years… as families face big bills”
R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates Daily Mail Money's claim that inheritance tax will "surge 66% to £15bn within five years" a 2/10 because the figures (£9bn this year rising to £15bn in 2031-32) are lifted directly from the OBR's own forecast, with only the nominal-versus-real-terms context left for the body copy rather than the headline.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The headline's £9bn-to-£15bn, 66% figure matches the OBR forecast cited in the article almost exactly, and the five-year window lines up with the OBR's standard forecast horizon. The one omission, that this is a cash-terms rise not adjusted for economic growth or inflation, is a minor one-iteration gap, not a distortion of the underlying data.
What actually happened
The article reports that IHT receipts are on track to raise £9billion this financial year, comprising 0.3 per cent of Britain's gross domestic product, Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) figures show. It further states that IHT receipts are then expected to surge to £15billion in 2031-32, driven by rising house prices and equity, a growing proportion of UK deaths subject to IHT and the impact of policies announced in the 2024 Autumn Budget, the OBR said.
Key facts
- Current-year IHT take: £9billion this financial year, comprising 0.3 per cent of Britain's gross domestic product (OBR forecast)
- Forecast IHT take for 2031-32: £15billion, which is a 66.7% rise on £9bn, consistent with the headline's "66%" figure
- Historical trend: HM Revenue & Customs collected £8.5billion in IHT in the last tax year, up from around £5.3billion five years earlier, representing an increase of around 60 per cent
- 20-year context: IHT receipts over the last 20 years have grown from £3.5billion in 2006-07, to £8.5billion in 2025-26, HMRC said
- Driver named by the regulator itself: An increasing proportion of IHT revenue is forecast to come from changes to the inheritance tax regime announced at and since Autumn Budget 2024, including taxing inherited pension pots and introducing changes to agricultural and business property reliefs, which account for around one-sixth of total revenue by the end of the forecast. The behavioural responses to these measures and the tax base for inheritable pension wealth are particularly uncertain.
- Pension IHT change from April 2027: HMRC estimates that around 10,500 estates will become liable for IHT in 2027-28 as a result of this change, while a further 38,500 will face a bigger bill than they would have done under the old rules. For those already facing an IHT bill, the average amount owed is expected to increase by around £34,000 when pension assets are included.
What to watch for
- The 66% is a cash-terms, not inflation-adjusted, figure; watch whether the OBR's share-of-GDP forecast for 2031-32 rises as sharply as the headline number, which would confirm a genuine real-terms squeeze rather than fiscal drag alone.
- The OBR itself flags the pension and agricultural/business relief changes as "particularly uncertain," so the £15bn figure could move in subsequent fiscal updates.
- Watch for frozen-threshold extensions (already pushed to April 2031) being renewed again, which would be the real engine behind future headline numbers rather than organic growth.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.