Rubbish Check
NPR Business · 31 October 2026
source“‘Oil company earnings skyrocket, again’”
R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates NPR's claim that oil earnings "skyrocket again" a 2/10 because Exxon, Shell and Chevron's reported quarterly profits genuinely doubled or near-doubled year on year, and the article explains the geopolitical cause (the Iran war and Ukraine's refinery strikes) in the very next paragraph rather than burying it.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The headline uses a punchy verb ("skyrocket") but the underlying numbers back it up almost exactly, and unlike many profit-spike stories, NPR doesn't let the headline stand alone without immediate context: paragraph three explains the war-driven price mechanism, and the piece gives oil executives direct quotes to rebut the framing. The only nitpick is that "skyrocket" implies something sudden and unearned, when the article itself frames it as a predictable consequence of a supply shock rather than opportunism.
What actually happened
Exxon, Shell and Chevron reported third-quarter 2026 results this week showing profits up sharply from a year earlier, driven by the disruption to global oil supply from the Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. The companies say they're banking much of the windfall rather than reinvesting it, given the uncertainty over how long the price spike will last.
Key facts
- Exxon earned $15.4 billion in Q3 2026, more than double the $7.5 billion it earned a year earlier; adjusted earnings were $17.5 billion, or $4.23/share, beating the $4.12-$4.08 consensus.
- Chevron's net income surged to $9.9 billion (nearly 200% up from $3.5 billion a year earlier); adjusted EPS of $5.28 beat the roughly $4.88-$4.89 estimate.
- Shell's profit nearly doubled to $10.8 billion, per the article; combined, the three majors pulled in just over $36 billion for the quarter.
- Brent crude traded around $113/barrel at time of publication versus about $70 before the Iran war began, per the article.
- Gasoline costs about $1.20 more per gallon than a year ago (AAA); diesel hit a record high in September and remains near that level.
- Exxon returned $9.4 billion to shareholders in the quarter (dividends and buybacks); Shell's buyback was among its largest ever.
What to watch for
- Watch whether Exxon and Chevron's "wait-and-see" cash hoarding, as Pickering Energy Partners' Dan Pickering describes it, shifts into new drilling investment if prices stay elevated into 2027; a pivot would undercut the "scarcity, not spending" narrative.
- Watch the windfall-tax bills in Congress: if they gain traction before the midterms, expect outlets to reframe these same earnings figures as "excess profits" rather than "skyrocketing."
- Watch Brent crude and refining margins into Q4: a reversal would make this quarter look like a peak rather than a trend, changing how "again" ages in the headline.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
