Rubbish Check
Guardian Business · 2 November 2026
source“Nine big oil firms on track to share more than $95bn profit two quarters in a row”
R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
12345678910
In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Guardian's claim that nine major oil firms are "on track to share more than $95bn profit two quarters in a row" a 2/10 because the figure traces directly to AJ Bell's published analysis and the hedge "on track" correctly flags that not every company had reported yet.
The Verdict
Lightly altered, close to base fact. The headline is a near-literal restatement of AJ Bell's analyst projection, uses an appropriately cautious verb ("on track") rather than overstating a confirmed total, and matches the already-confirmed figures from BP, Shell and TotalEnergies. The only iteration away from pure fact is that it omits the driver (the Iran war oil-price spike) that the body explains, a minor omission rather than a distortion.
What actually happened
AJ Bell's analysis projected that nine of the world's largest listed oil producers would post combined quarterly profits above $95bn for July to September, following $96bn in the second quarter. The surge follows the US-Israel war on Iran, which pushed oil prices above $126 a barrel earlier in the year and disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, boosting refining margins across the sector.
Key facts
- AJ Bell's analysis: nine major oil producers on track for combined Q3 profit above $95bn, following $96bn in Q2.
- Aramco: analysts expected a 7% rise in quarterly net income to $30bn, still an estimate at time of publication.
- BP: reported underlying replacement cost profit of $8.46 billion for the third quarter of 2026, substantially above the $2.2 billion reported a year earlier, exceeding the company-compiled analyst consensus of $7.33 billion, its biggest since 2008 per the article, and confirmed in its SEC 6-K filing.
- Context: the results follow high earnings from Shell and TotalEnergies, which also beat quarterly profit expectations this week and chose to raise share buybacks with their cash.
What to watch for
Watch for Aramco's actual Q3 print, since the headline total partly rests on an analyst estimate rather than confirmed results. Also watch whether Q4 profits taper as the Iran-war price spike fades and refining margins normalise, which would undercut the "two quarters in a row" framing going forward.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
