In short
Rubbish Talk rates Daily Mail Money's claim that a £25 shopping basket is now "50.2% more expensive" a 4/10 because the figure is accurately reported but comes from a bespoke, pre-promotion 25-item basket weighted toward the most inflation-prone products, not a representative measure of overall food inflation.
The Verdict
Selective. The 50.2% number itself checks out against the article's own data, but the headline presents a narrow, commissioned basket, heavy on beef mince, olive oil and chocolate, as if it were a general read on grocery costs, while burying that the figures are "pre-promotion prices" and that the steepest jump happened years ago, not now.
What actually happened
Exclusive research commissioned for This is Money and the Daily Mail found that a basket of 25 supermarket essentials costing £25.04 in September 2020 now costs almost £38, a 50.2% rise. The data, supplied by retail research agency Assosia, tracks average pre-promotion prices across Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda and Morrisons from 2020 to 2026. Industry figures attribute the rise to energy costs, staff costs, business rates, packaging tax and extreme weather rather than supermarket profiteering.
Key facts
- Basket cost: £25.04 (Sept 2020) → nearly £38 (2026), a rise the article states as 50.2%.
- Biggest single riser: minced beef, up from £2.81 to £5.08 (500g pack).
- Other large rises: olive oil (+£2.04), milk chocolate (+£1.25), chicken thighs (+£1.24), eggs (+91p).
- Smallest movers: Digestive biscuits, baked beans and tea bags, per the article's own framing.
- Sharpest jump was 2021 to 2022, when the basket rose £6.33 (£24.55 to £30.87), not in the most recent period.
- Data basis: average pre-promotion prices across four retailers only, a proprietary 25-item selection, not the ONS's broader CPI food basket.
What to watch for
Watch whether Daily Mail or others quote this bespoke 50.2% figure alongside official ONS food CPI data in future coverage, the two measure different things and conflating them would be a bigger tell of spin. Also watch for follow-up pieces noting retail expert Jonathan de Mello's own caveat that prices won't fall but may "stabilise", which cuts against any future headline implying runaway ongoing inflation.
