Rubbish Check
Daily Mail Money · 26 July 2026
source“Big banks braced for new windfall tax raid as Chancellor looks for easy targets”
R5/ 10
Selective
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Daily Mail's claim that banks are "braced for" a windfall tax "raid" a 5/10 because the story is built on one analyst's probability estimate ahead of results week, not any government announcement, dressed up with loaded words like "raid" and "easy targets."
The Verdict
Selective. The underlying reporting, that City analysts think a bank tax is likely and banks are lobbying against it, is real and sourced, but the headline converts an analyst's personal probability call into a done-deal "raid," using combative language the Chancellor never used and burying the fact that no policy has actually been announced.
What actually happened
Ahead of results from Lloyds, NatWest and Barclays this week, City analysts speculate the government may target bank profits for extra tax, most likely by reversing a 2023 cut to the bank surcharge or curbing interest paid on banks' Bank of England reserves. No tax has been announced; this is analyst forecasting and political positioning reported before the results land.
Key facts
- Lloyds, NatWest and Barclays are forecast to make almost £19billion between them this year, up from just under £16billion in 2025, according to City forecasts.
- The probability claim driving the headline comes from one source: "I would have thought that the likelihood of a bank tax was about 95 per cent probable," said Ed Firth of investment bank KBW.
- The likely mechanism is the bank surcharge, currently levied at 3 per cent above the 25 per cent rate of corporation tax on banks that make more than £100million a year, reduced from 8 per cent in 2023 by the Conservative Government.
- Reversing that cut would raise £9billion over four years, according to calculations by the Trades Union Congress.
- The alternative option targets a stealth subsidy paid to High Street banks, which costs taxpayers an estimated £20billion a year and is known as "reserve tiering."
- Industry pushback is on record: Trade body UK Finance said a new banking tax would harm Britain's international competitiveness and hinder the Government's growth goals.
- Context often missed: Banks paid a total of £43billion in tax last year, according to consultants at accountancy group PwC.
What to watch for
Watch whether the Chancellor makes any actual announcement in an autumn statement or budget; until then this is speculation, not policy. Also watch whether "reserve tiering" reform (the bigger, less politically toxic £20billion-a-year lever) gets more serious traction than the surcharge, since one source in the piece flags it as the harder but potentially larger fix.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
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