“Consumers hit by one-two punch of oil and rates from Iran war. The estimated bill is $1,700 per household”

What actually happened

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi calculated that the U.S.-Iran conflict has cost the average American household roughly $1,760 since fighting began, split between energy costs, higher interest rates, and higher military spending passed on via debt or taxes. CNBC pairs that estimate with reporting on surging oil prices and a spike in the 10-year Treasury yield to explain the squeeze on consumers.

Key facts

• Zandi said $930, or more than half, of that total bill for households comes from higher costs for energy
• Another $425 of that $1,760 stems from higher interest rates since the war broke out
• The final $405 comes from higher military spending, which Zandi said consumers will foot the bill for through either national debt expansion or increased taxes
• Cumulatively, Moody's found that U.S. consumers have spent more than $121 billion extra on energy since the war began
• U.S. crude topped $105/barrel on Tuesday, its highest closing level since mid-May; gas averaged $4.32/gallon (up 6% month over month, 36% year over year, per AAA)
• The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 this week, roughly a full percentage point above a year ago
• An earlier Moody's estimate in April/May put the household cost at $750, meaning the figure has more than doubled as the war dragged on

What to watch for

Watch whether Moody's revises this running tally again next month; if the war persists, the per-household figure has already more than doubled since spring and could keep climbing. Also watch the Fed's rate decision referenced in the piece: futures pricing a hike would add a fourth compounding pressure not yet folded into the $1,760 estimate.