Rubbish Check
Fox Business · August 11, 2026
source“Federal budget deficit on track to surpass $2T this fiscal year as spending outpaces revenue”
R3/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates Fox Business's claim that the FY2026 deficit is "on track to surpass $2T… as spending outpaces revenue" a 3/10 because the headline's driver is only half right: the CBO's own upward revision to $2.1 trillion is explained by the agency as mostly a revenue shortfall from tariff refunds, not a spending surge.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The $2 trillion figure and the CBO sourcing are solid and match the primary release, and the "spending outpaces revenue" framing is technically true for the 10-month year-over-year comparison. But it blurs two separate stories: spending genuinely did grow faster than revenue year-over-year, while the reason CBO raised its full-year estimate by $200 billion versus February is almost entirely a revenue miss tied to tariff refunds after a Supreme Court ruling, a distinction the article itself concedes in paragraph four but the headline glosses over.
What actually happened
The CBO's July Monthly Budget Review showed the government ran a $1.8 trillion deficit through the first 10 months of fiscal 2026, and now projects a $2.1 trillion deficit for the full year. Spending rose faster than tax collections year-over-year, but CBO attributes the bulk of its upward revision from the February baseline to weaker-than-expected tariff revenue following a Supreme Court ruling.
Key facts
- 10-month FY2026 deficit: nearly $1.8 trillion, up $169 billion from the same period in FY2025.
- Spending rose $308 billion year-over-year versus a $139 billion rise in revenue over the same 10 months.
- CBO's full-year estimate rose to $2.1 trillion, up $200 billion from its February projection; CBO said this was "mostly because of smaller-than-expected collections of tariff duties" following the Supreme Court ruling.
- Corroborated by CRFB, which put the 12-month rolling deficit at $1.9 trillion through July 2026, and by Fortune, which reported federal spending running close to its February baseline, meaning the deficit's growth versus that baseline is "almost entire due to the revenue side."
- Interest costs on the debt rose $117 billion (14%) year-over-year; Social Security spending rose 5%, Medicare 8%, Medicaid 8%.
- Corporate income tax collections fell $89 billion (23%) due to One Big Beautiful Bill Act deduction provisions; about $100 billion in tariff refunds have been issued to date.
What to watch for
Watch whether CBO's September update shows tariff-refund payouts stabilizing or continuing to drag on customs revenue, since that swing factor, not entitlement or interest growth, is what pushed the deficit past the February baseline. Also watch how other outlets frame the same CBO release: a spending-led headline versus a tariff-refund-led headline reveals which framing was a choice.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
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