Rubbish Check
Independent Business · 22 July 2026
source“Food inflation hits lowest rate in almost two years but set to rise again”
R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates Independent Business's claim that food inflation "hits lowest rate in almost two years" a 2/10 because the ONS confirms the 1.7% figure and the "lowest since August 2024" framing, and the headline's own caveat about inflation rising again matches what industry economists actually told the paper.
The Verdict
Lightly altered, and barely that. This is one of the rare headlines that states the good number and the bad forecast in the same breath, rather than picking one and burying the other. The only nitpick is "almost two years" doing slightly more work than the data strictly requires, but it's a defensible rounding of a real ONS comparison, not a distortion.
What actually happened
The ONS reported that food and non-alcoholic drink price inflation eased to 1.7% in the 12 months to June 2026, its lowest annual rate since August 2024. Prices still rose year-on-year, they just rose more slowly, while month-on-month prices actually dipped slightly. Industry economists quoted in the piece welcomed the slowdown but flagged energy and Middle East conflict-driven cost pressures that could push food inflation back up later in the year.
Key facts
- Food and non-alcoholic drink inflation: Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 1.7% in the 12 months to June 2026, down from 2.2% in the 12 months to May, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
- ONS confirms the comparator: The annual rate in June was the lowest since August 2024, when it was 1.3%, meaning the "almost two years" framing spans roughly 22 months rather than exactly two, a minor rounding rather than a distortion.
- Independent corroboration: Food inflation also cooled to 1.7%, the lowest since August 2024, from 2.2%, with the largest drag coming from sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate, and confectionery.
- Monthly move: prices fell 0.2% between May and June, per the article, showing the slowdown wasn't only a base-effect story.
- The "set to rise again" clause is directly attributed to on-record experts (IGD's James Walton, FDF's Liliana Danila) citing Middle East-driven energy costs and regulatory pressures, not the paper's own speculation.
What to watch for
Watch the July and August ONS releases for whether the forecast rise materializes, since Walton explicitly named energy costs from the Iran conflict and extreme European weather as the mechanisms to feed through the supply chain. Also worth tracking: whether manufacturers' hedged energy and ingredient contracts (fixed up to two years out, per the article) delay any spike into 2027 rather than "later this year" as claimed.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
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