Rubbish Check
Guardian US · 14 October 2026
source“‘From liabilities to goldmines’: refineries eye record profits from diesel shortage”
R3/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Guardian's claim that refiners are heading for "record profits" from the diesel shortage a 3/10 because the figures in the piece (TotalEnergies' tripled refining income, Shell's near-doubled crack margins, doubled US refiner share prices) genuinely support record-profit forecasts, even though the headline doesn't flag that the windfall is already reversing for some European refiners.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The headline's "goldmines" line is a direct, accurately attributed quote from TotalEnergies' CEO, and the profit numbers in the body back up the "record profits" framing for the named companies. The one iteration away from the base fact: the headline implies a uniform refiner windfall, when the article itself reports north-west Europe's crack spread has already swung from +$54 to -$11 a barrel this month.
What actually happened
The IEA warned the global diesel shortage, caused by war damage to Middle East and Russian refineries plus Chinese export curbs, will persist into 2027 despite sanctions relief and stockpile releases. While the IEA flagged rising costs for consumers and businesses, the Guardian reports that integrated refiners, which convert crude into diesel and jet fuel, are capturing outsized margins from the supply squeeze, with several poised to post their best-ever quarterly results.
Key facts
- IEA says diesel market constraints will extend into 2027; supply of diesel into global market fell by about 1m barrels a day from 2025 levels, per the article.
- TotalEnergies' refining and chemicals profit more than quadrupled to $1.8bn in April to June, its strongest quarterly profit in three years.
- Shell's forecast refining margin nearly doubled to $42 a barrel in Q3 from $24 a barrel in Q2.
- US fuel exports climbed over 50% year-on-year to an all-time high of 1.9m barrels a day.
- Market value of Marathon Petroleum, Valero and Phillips 66 has more than doubled since the crisis began, adding a combined $215bn in 2026.
- North-west Europe refining margins ("crack spread") fell from $54 a barrel in early September to as low as -$11 a barrel this month. Corroboration: IEA's October Oil Market Report findings on the 2027 diesel squeeze are independently confirmed by Reuters, CNBC and The National, which report the same timeline and the 1.3m barrels-a-day combined export loss cited by the agency.
What to watch for
- Whether the negative European crack spread spreads to US refiners, which would undercut the "record profits" narrative within weeks.
- The IEA's own warning that the shift toward diesel production could create a surplus by early next year, a reversal that would flatten these margins fast.
- Next quarterly results from Marathon, Valero and Phillips 66, the real test of whether "largest-ever profits" materialises as forecast.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
