Rubbish Check
Guardian Business · 25 September 2026
source“Iran war drives UK diesel price to near record high, and makes interest rate rise ‘hard to avoid’, business live”
R3/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates Guardian Business's live-blog headline linking the Iran war to near-record diesel prices and a "hard to avoid" rate rise a 3/10, because the diesel figures check out but the quote-marked phrase "hard to avoid" isn't what Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey actually said.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The diesel numbers are reported straight and match the RAC's own figures, but the headline puts "hard to avoid" in quotation marks as if it were Bailey's phrase, when he actually said it would be "harder to maintain" the current rate stance the longer energy prices stay high. It's a fair paraphrase of the substance, not a fabrication, but dressing a paraphrase up as a quote is exactly the kind of one-notch inflation that nudges a clean story off 1.
What actually happened
UK diesel prices climbed to 198.32p a litre, closing in on the 2022 record of roughly 199p, driven by Middle East supply disruption from the Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Separately, at an Oxford conference, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said high energy prices are making it harder for the Bank to hold interest rates unchanged, a view echoed by Morgan Stanley's forecast of hikes in November and February.
Key facts
- Average UK diesel price: 198.32p/litre, versus the 2022 record of 199.09p; RAC said the record "will almost certainly be surpassed over the weekend."
- Diesel is up 14.5p in September alone and 55p since 28 February; petrol has risen almost 40p since the Iran war began.
- Brent crude hit $106/barrel, having sat around $100 for two weeks.
- Bailey's actual words: it's "going to be harder to maintain that stance, the longer we have high energy prices", not "hard to avoid" a rise, though the two are close in meaning.
- Morgan Stanley has pencilled in Bank of England rate hikes for November and February, not a done deal.
- The article itself attributes the fuel-price spike to two causes: the Iran war and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, not the Iran war alone.
What to watch for
- Whether diesel actually breaches the 2022 record over the following days, as RAC predicted, or whether the oil price retreats first.
- Whether the Bank's next MPC minutes use "cautious" or "careful" language, since Bailey flagged this as a live internal debate with market-moving weight.
- Whether Morgan Stanley's November/February hike call holds if energy prices ease before then.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
