Rubbish Check
CNBC Make It · 26 October 2026
source“Mortgage rates above 7% are the ‘new normal’-here’s why”
R5/ 10
Selective
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
12345678910
In short
Rubbish Talk rates CNBC's claim that 7%+ mortgage rates are the "new normal" a 5/10 because the article's own primary source, Cotality's Selma Hepp, explicitly rejects that exact phrase as misleading.
The Verdict
Selective. The underlying reporting is solid and the forecasts are real, but the headline states as settled fact a label that one of the article's own expert sources directly disavows, flattening a nuanced "elevated for now, not necessarily forever" story into a flat, permanent-sounding claim.
What actually happened
Housing economists and forecasters increasingly expect mortgage rates to stay above 7% into 2027, driven by persistent inflation, heavy federal borrowing, AI-driven capital demand, and banks' reduced appetite for mortgage-backed securities. The article lays out this case through multiple named analysts, but it also includes a direct caveat from one of them against the "new normal" framing itself.
Key facts
- Fannie Mae forecasts mortgage rates could average 7.5% in 2027, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects them to remain above 7%.
- Inflation, as measured by the Fed's preferred PCE price index, hasn't been below the central bank's 2% target since February 2021.
- Getting mortgage rates back to around 6% would likely require lower inflation, slower economic growth, or less pressure from government borrowing on the 10-year Treasury yield.
- Hepp says she doesn't like calling 7% the "new normal," since there's nothing permanent about that particular number.
- The low inflation, abundant capital, and accommodative Fed policies that helped produce 3% and 4% mortgages are no longer in place, Hepp says.
What to watch for
Watch the next CPI/PCE print and 10-year Treasury yield moves: a cooling in either would directly undercut the "new normal" framing per the article's own sourcing. Also watch whether Fannie Mae or MBA revise their 2027 forecasts downward, since both numbers cited are projections, not locked-in outcomes.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
