Rubbish Check
Daily Mail Money · 24 August 2026
source“National debt ‘will hit £4tn by 2033’ in borrowing binge”
R6/ 10
Spin-heavy
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Daily Mail's claim that UK debt "will hit £4tn by 2033" a 6/10 because that figure comes from a single Nomura analyst's extrapolation of IMF projections, not an official OBR forecast, which the Mail's own article shows tops out at £3.5trillion for 2030-31.
The Verdict
Spin-heavy. The headline states as fact ("will hit") a number that the article's own body attributes to one bank economist's private modelling of IMF data, three years beyond the actual OBR forecast horizon. The OBR, the government's official fiscal watchdog, projects £3.5trillion by 2030-31; the £4trillion/2033 figure is speculative extrapolation dressed up as certainty.
What actually happened
Official data showed UK government debt approaching £3trillion, in line with OBR projections. The article separately cites Nomura economist George Buckley's own analysis of IMF projections, which suggests debt "could" reach £4trillion "as soon as 2033." The story otherwise covers real, verifiable pressures: soaring gilt yields, rising interest costs, and OBR warnings about long-term fiscal sustainability.
Key facts
- Official data last week showed government debt is just below £3trillion, a milestone it looks set to hit in the coming months, having been £350billion at the turn of the century.
- The figure is then set to hit £3.5trillion in 2030-31, according to forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility, meaning it has risen tenfold in 30 years. This OBR figure is corroborated independently: the OBR's own guide states net debt is expected to reach around £3.5 trillion by 2030-31.
- The £4trillion/2033 figure comes solely from analysis of International Monetary Fund projections by Nomura economist George Buckley, which suggests it could hit £4trillion as soon as 2033, a conditional, single-source projection, not an OBR or government figure.
- UK bond yields are the highest in the G7, meaning it costs Britain more to borrow than any other major developed nation including the US, France, Germany and Italy.
- Taxpayers are expected to fork out more than £730billion in interest payments over the next six years, more than is spent on defence.
What to watch for
Watch whether the Mail (or others) revisit this "£4trillion" figure once the OBR publishes its next forecast round after October's Budget; if the official trajectory diverges from Nomura's extrapolation, expect quiet abandonment rather than correction. Also watch how the OBR's own warning about debt reaching 300% of GDP by 2075-76 gets used in future headlines, since long-horizon projections are routinely more uncertain than near-term ones.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
