Rubbish Check
Guardian Business · 16 August 2026
source“New UK cost of living crisis looms with soaring energy bills forecast to lift inflation”
R5/ 10
Selective
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Guardian's claim that a "new cost of living crisis looms" a 5/10 because the forecast inflation rise to 2.9% sits well below last year's 3.8% peak, and the article's own figures show a resilient economy, not a fresh crisis.
The Verdict
Selective. The headline's crisis framing is built on a real, verifiable driver: the Ofgem price cap rise. But it buries the article's own caveats, that inflation was expected to fall to close to 2% before the Iran war, that the economy is growing at the fastest pace in the G7, and that CPI would still sit under half the level of last year's 3.8% peak. Calling a forecast 0.3-point uptick a "new cost of living crisis" is a stretch the article's own body text doesn't support.
What actually happened
Ofgem raised its energy price cap by 13% from 1 July 2026, driven by wholesale gas costs tied to Middle East conflict disruption. Economists, cited by the Guardian, expect this to push July's headline CPI inflation from June's 2.6% to around 2.9%, with the Bank of England's own forecast pointing to 3.2% by year end.
Key facts
- Ofgem confirmed a 13% increase of the energy price cap for the period covering 1 July to 30 September 2026, with the regulator attributing it to higher wholesale gas prices, caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
- The rise is uneven: Ofgem notes customers will see a smaller price increase of around 5% on their electricity bills compared to gas bills which are rising by 24%, a nuance the headline flattens into one number.
- Around 40% of accounts, roughly 22 million households on fixed tariffs, are therefore unaffected by this price rise, meaning the "soaring bills" framing doesn't apply uniformly.
- Per the article, RSM UK's Thomas Pugh estimates the cap rise adds "about 0.44 percentage points to headline inflation," partly offset by falling petrol and diesel prices.
- The article itself states June's rate was 2.6%, down from a peak of 3.8% last year, and that Britain's economy grew at the fastest pace in the G7 in H1 2026, undercutting the "crisis" framing.
- Ofgem also flags that prices remain well below the height of the energy crisis in 2022 when the government stepped in to cap bills at £2,500, a direct contradiction of any "new 2022-style crisis" implication.
What to watch for
- Wednesday's actual ONS CPI print versus the 2.9% forecast will confirm or deflate the story; watch for whether petrol/diesel offsets land bigger than expected.
- Whether the Bank of England's September meeting delivers the "almost one-in-four" priced-in rate rise, or holds, given inflation is still forecast well under the 2022-23 peak.
- Ofwat's mooted water "surge pricing" is a separate, unconfirmed story bundled into the same piece; it shouldn't be read as locked-in policy.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
