Rubbish Check
CNBC Top News · 26 August 2026
source“Nvidia forecasts fiscal ’28 revenue growth of 70%, soaring past estimates: Live updates”
R3/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates CNBC's claim that Nvidia "forecasts fiscal '28 revenue growth of 70%, soaring past estimates" a 3/10 because Nvidia's own CFO stated that exact figure on the earnings call against a 44% analyst estimate, though the headline omits that Nvidia stock has fallen the day after each of its last four earnings reports despite similar beats.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. This is close to the base fact: CFO Colette Kress genuinely told analysts to expect 70% fiscal 2028 revenue growth against a 44% consensus, so "soaring past estimates" is accurate, not spun. The one iteration of distance is the missing context that Nvidia has a documented pattern of selling off the day after strong reports, which tempers how much weight "forecasts" should carry with readers.
What actually happened
Nvidia reported fiscal Q2 2027 results beating on revenue, EPS and data center sales, then CFO Colette Kress told analysts on the earnings call that customer forecasts point to fiscal 2028 revenue growth of roughly 70%, well above the roughly 44% analysts had modeled. The stock initially jumped on the forecast, but Nvidia shares were already down about 1% heading into the print and have fallen the day after each of the company's last four earnings reports even when it beat expectations.
Key facts
- Fiscal 2028 forecast: Kress cited ~70% revenue growth versus a ~44% analyst estimate, per her earnings-call commentary.
- Current-quarter guidance: $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, versus $104.2 billion expected by analysts.
- Data center revenue this quarter: $89 billion versus $86.33 billion expected, up 117% year over year; total revenue up 106% year over year.
- Gross margin held at 75% for a second straight quarter but is guided to slip to 74% next quarter and bottom at 71%-72% in fiscal Q4 2027 on memory costs.
- Next quarter's guidance assumes zero China data center sales, and current China chip shipments are under 1% of data center revenue.
- Nvidia stock has retreated the day after reporting in each of the previous four quarters despite meeting or beating estimates each time.
What to watch for
Watch whether Nvidia stock follows its established pattern and sells off in the days after this report despite the beat, which would signal the market discounts long-range forecasts like the 70% figure. Also watch the fiscal Q4 gross-margin print (guided to 71%-72%) for confirmation that memory scarcity is biting as expected, and whether China sales stay near zero as guided.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
