Rubbish Check
Guardian Business · 9 October 2026 source
“OpenAI projected to bring in $20bn less in revenue than expected”
R4/ 10
Selective
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Guardian's claim that OpenAI "will bring in $20bn less in revenue than expected" a 4/10 because the $70bn figure it is measured against was never OpenAI's own forecast, it was investors' estimate built to match Anthropic's different accounting method, a detail the headline omits.
The Verdict
Selective. The $50bn and $70bn numbers are both real and both correctly reported in the body, but the headline frames this as OpenAI missing a target or revenue collapsing, when the actual story is an accounting-methodology mismatch surfaced by OpenAI's own investors. The word "expected" implies a forecast OpenAI made and failed to hit; the article itself clarifies the $70bn was a third-party estimate built for comparability with a rival, not OpenAI's guidance. That's a meaningful omission from the headline, but not a fabrication, so it lands mid-table rather than high.
What actually happened
OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue, based on sales through the end of September, is approaching $50bn. This is $20bn below a $70bn figure that had circulated last month and was widely reported as an OpenAI number. The gap arose because that $70bn estimate was produced by OpenAI's investors trying to make a like-for-like comparison with Anthropic, which counts revenue sold through cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud, something OpenAI does not do in its own accounting.
Key facts
- OpenAI has told investors its annualised revenue is approaching $50 billion, roughly $20 billion short of a previously circulated $70 billion figure.
- The discrepancy stems partly from differing calculation methods between OpenAI and competitor Anthropic, which includes sales made through cloud partners.
- The $70bn figure was not OpenAI's own guidance: it was devised via "attempts by OpenAI's own investors to produce a direct comparison with Anthropic's annualised revenues," per the FT reporting referenced.
- Anthropic's own forecast revenue hit $65bn by the end of July, a figure that includes cloud-partner sales OpenAI's number excludes.
- The news coincided with a broad tech selloff: Nasdaq closed down 1.4%, Nvidia fell 2.9%, Oracle fell 5.5%, Micron fell 4.8%.
- OpenAI's most recent fundraising closed in March at $122bn, valuing the company at $852bn; it is now in early talks to raise $30bn at a $1.4tn valuation.
What to watch for
- Watch whether OpenAI publishes its own like-for-like comparison methodology against Anthropic going forward, since the current $50bn vs $65bn-$70bn confusion stems entirely from inconsistent accounting conventions between the two firms.
- Watch how the $30bn fundraising talks at a $1.4tn valuation are affected, or not, by this revenue clarification; a genuine funding pullback would be the real test of whether markets believed the "miss" framing.
- Watch for Anthropic's IPO filing, expected as soon as next month, which should force more standardised revenue disclosure across both labs.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.