In short
Rubbish Talk rates CNBC's headline that ADP reported private payrolls "rose by 38,000 in August, less than expected" a 1/10 because the figure, the miss versus consensus, and the direction all match ADP's release exactly, with nothing added or bent.
The Verdict
Base fact. The headline states the precise number ADP reported, correctly flags it as a miss against consensus, and adds no adjective or spin to inflate or soften the story. This is what a clean jobs-data headline looks like.
What actually happened
ADP's National Employment Report showed private employers added 38,000 jobs in August. The article states this was fewer than the upwardly revised 46,000 in July and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 47,000. Gains were narrowly concentrated while several sectors shed jobs, and pay growth held steady.
Key facts
- Headline number: 38,000 private-sector jobs added in August, versus a Dow Jones consensus of 47,000 and an upwardly revised July print of 46,000.
- August was the smallest gain since January, a detail the headline doesn't carry but doesn't contradict either.
- Education and health services added 45,000 to lead all categories, leisure and hospitality added 16,000, and construction was up 12,000, while manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services was off 16,000, and both natural resources and mining as well as trade, transportation and utilities reported declines of 5,000.
- Almost all of the gains came from big business, with companies employing 500 or more workers adding 34,000 while those with fewer than 50 employees rose by 3,000.
- Base pay rose 3% from a year ago while gross pay increased 4.4% for job-stayers, both unchanged from July.
What to watch for
The real test lands Friday: the BLS nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show an increase of 53,000, after the 23,000 decline in July, and ADP has diverged from BLS before. Watch whether the sector concentration (healthcare carrying almost all the gain) repeats in the official data, and whether July's ADP figure gets revised again next month.
