“SpaceX stock falls 12% as AI spending surge rattles investors and massive share unlock looms”

What actually happened

SpaceX reported its first earnings as a public company on Tuesday, beating revenue expectations, but capital expenditure came in far above forecasts, driven mostly by AI infrastructure spending. Capital expenditures jumped more than sixfold from a year earlier to $18.37 billion in the second quarter, most of that in AI, and the total capex figure exceeded the $13.22 billion average analyst estimate. The stock fell sharply following the report, and a separate, scheduled insider lockup expiration on Thursday added to the pressure.

Key facts

• Capex jumped more than sixfold year over year to $18.37 billion, with $15.83 billion of that in AI, exceeding the $13.22 billion analyst estimate.
• SpaceX's second-quarter revenue rose 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, beating the roughly $6.8-6.93 billion analysts had forecast, per corroborating coverage of the same release.
• Shares rose about 9.4% in Tuesday's regular session to $125.33, then reversed roughly 8.5% after hours to around $114.60 once the capex figure landed.
• A lockup expiration set for Thursday will free up more than $100 billion in shares for trading, according to Bloomberg-sourced reporting, an overhang analysts flagged could weigh further on the stock.
• The stock remains below its $135 IPO price and well off the more than $200 all-time high hit shortly after its June 12 debut.

What to watch for

Watch how much of the freed-up lockup stock actually hits the market on Thursday, that's the real test of whether the "massive share unlock" fear is realised or overstated. Also track whether CFO Bret Johnsen's claimed sub-one-year payback on AI compute spending shows up in the next quarter's margins, since that claim is currently unverified beyond his own earnings-call comment.