Rubbish Check
Newsweek · 21 September 2026 source
“Super El Niño Poised to Intensify as It Smashes 170-Year Record”
R5/ 10
Selective
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates Newsweek's claim that the 2026 El Niño has "smashed" a 170-year record a 5/10 because the record and the "super" label both trace to a single meteorologist's social-media post, not to NOAA, which officially calls the event only "very strong."
The Verdict
Selective. The underlying numbers appear to check out against what's cited in the piece, but the headline borrows its most dramatic framing, "Super El Niño" and "170-year record," from one meteorologist's X post rather than from NOAA, whose own classification for the same event is the far less sensational "very strong." That gap between the official label and the headline's label is the story's biggest omission.
What actually happened
Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli reported on X that the 2026 El Niño's ocean surface temperature anomaly had broken the prior record set in November 2015, hitting it roughly two months earlier in the season. "It's official, the 2026 El Niño has broken a record for the highest ocean anomaly in 170+ years… Incredibly reaching that threshold a full 2 months ahead of 2015's record of +3.02C set on Nov 18th," Berardelli posted. NOAA confirmed to Newsweek that the event will keep strengthening through the rest of the year but did not itself use the "super" or "record-breaking" framing.
Key facts
- "As of the most recent measurements shared by Berardelli, the current El Niño is 3.05 degrees Celsius above average and still climbing."
- "The current El Niño has recorded a sea surface temperature of 3.05 degrees Celsius above average, breaking the prior record set during a 2015 event that produced sea surface temperatures of 3.02 degrees Celsius above average at its peak."
- "What's even more interesting is that the 2015 event set the record in November of that year, when El Niño had reached its peak", whereas the 2026 figure was hit before peak.
- "Although NOAA refers to the climate pattern as 'very strong,' both labels refer to an event in which waters are warmer than average, usually by around 2 degrees Celsius." "Super El Niño" is a label used by "many independent meteorologists and other weather agencies", not NOAA's own terminology.
- "A NOAA spokesperson told Newsweek on Monday that El Niño is expected to continue strengthening through November and December."
What to watch for
- Whether NOAA's own Climate Prediction Center adopts "record" language in its next ENSO diagnostic discussion, or keeps describing the event only as "very strong."
- The specific ocean region/index behind the 3.05°C figure isn't named in the piece; readers should watch for whether follow-up coverage clarifies which Niño region or averaging window produced that number, since "sea surface temperature above average" can mean different things depending on the metric used.
- A typical El Niño peaks between December and April, so the real test of "smashed record" durability is whether the anomaly holds through winter rather than fading before the season's peak.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.