“Trump says Iran’s economy is collapsing. A former central bank adviser in Tehran pushes back”

What actually happened

CNBC covered Trump vowing "economic warfare and isolation on an unprecedented scale" against Iran, declaring the regime is "hanging by a thread," following the collapse of ceasefire talks. A former Iranian central bank adviser, Mehrdad Sepahvand, responded that caution is warranted about a full-collapse narrative, while still acknowledging the economy is deteriorating, and flagged that the UAE's newly announced trade cutoff could push Iran's contraction toward 5% this year.

Key facts

• Trump vowed "economic warfare and isolation on an unprecedented scale" against Iran, part of a campaign the Trump administration has waged since April under the banner Operation Economic Fury.
• Iran's gross domestic product is estimated to have contracted by 2.7% in the year ending March, according to the World Bank.
• Inflation surged to 62.2% in February, with food price inflation reaching a historical high of 99%, according to the World Bank.
• Sepahvand said "Shops are still full of food and basic goods, and there is no sign of panic buying," and public confidence in the banking system "has not collapsed".
• He put the near-term outlook at "about minus-5% for now, and [UAE's sanctions] may worsen the situation," following the UAE's move to sever trade and financial ties with Tehran.

What to watch for

• Whether the UAE trade cutoff actually pushes Iran's contraction toward the 5% figure Sepahvand floated, or whether workarounds soften the hit.
• The next World Bank or IMF update on inflation and GDP will show if the "deteriorating but not unraveling" read holds.
• Watch whether hardliners inside Iran's government, which Sepahvand says are gaining leverage from the pressure campaign, further stall any negotiated deal.