Rubbish Check
CNBC Top News · 28 August 2026
source“U.S. appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up likely fight at Supreme Court”
R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates CNBC's headline that a "U.S. appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up likely fight at Supreme Court" a 2/10 because the Ninth Circuit did reject Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com's bids for injunctive relief, and the ruling does create a genuine circuit split with the Third Circuit that legal experts expect to reach the Supreme Court.
The Verdict
Lightly altered, not spun. The headline's two claims both check out against the article and outside sourcing: the Ninth Circuit sided with Nevada, and a Columbia Law School professor is on record calling this "a classic circuit split," adding that "this is the kind of legal controversy or legal difference of opinion which will make its way to the Supreme Court." The only mild stretch is "likely" doing some work: no cert petition exists yet, so "sets up" is accurate but "likely fight" is still a prediction, not a filed fact. That's a single, defensible iteration off the base fact, not a distortion.
What actually happened
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals rejected requests for injunctive relief from Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood against the Nevada Gaming Control Board, ruling that sports-related event contracts are not a derivative regulated by the federal government. This directly conflicts with an April ruling from the Third Circuit that went the opposite way, and the CFTC has publicly disputed the Ninth Circuit's reasoning.
Key facts
- Ninth Circuit ruled sports event contracts on Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood are not "swaps" because they were sports bets, per the court's opinion.
- The dispute involves 44 states that argue the contracts are nothing more than sports betting, against the CFTC's claim of exclusive jurisdiction as swaps.
- This contradicts the Third Circuit's April 2026 ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, which held sports contracts fall under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction as swaps, per Holland & Knight's legal analysis.
- CFTC spokesperson called the ruling an error, saying the only statutory exceptions to swap classification are "onions and movie box office receipts".
- Robinhood confirmed it will appeal; DraftKings and Flutter (FanDuel's parent) shares rose 7% and over 6% respectively on the news, per the article.
What to watch for
- Watch for whether Kalshi, Robinhood or Crypto.com actually file a cert petition, that's the step that turns "likely" into "confirmed."
- The pending CFTC rulemaking on event contracts (comments closed spring 2026) could reshape the legal landscape before any Supreme Court review happens.
- Nevada's parallel state-court enforcement actions against Kalshi (including contempt proceedings) are a live thread that could move faster than the federal appeal.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
