“U.S. military says it aided passage of 660 million barrels of oil through Strait of Hormuz since May”
What actually happened
Central Command told CNBC that U.S. forces have assisted tankers carrying more than 660 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz since early May, up from 500 million barrels reported on July 29. The article itself immediately complicates that number: independent monitors, other U.S. officials, and the energy secretary all give different, sometimes conflicting, estimates of actual daily flow, and the strait remains actively contested with recent attacks and fatalities.
Key facts
- CENTCOM's cumulative figure: the military has assisted about 1,300 commercial vessels sail through Hormuz over the same period, said U.S. Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a Central Command spokesperson, in a statement Thursday, and CENTCOM said on July 29 that the total stood at 500 million barrels.
- Implied recent rate: this suggests at least 160 million barrels, or more than 7 million barrels per day, have transited the strait over the past three weeks, based on the military's past statements.
- Pre-war baseline for comparison: the shipments are still far below the fuel exports before the war, when about 20 million bpd of crude oil and products passed through Hormuz.
- Competing estimates: U.S. officials told Axios Wednesday that about 10 million bpd have exited the strait in recent weeks, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Aug. 11 that the seven-day average had risen to nearly 9 million bpd.
- Independent tracker is much lower: the maritime intelligence firm Windward estimates that crude oil exports through Hormuz averaged about 5 million bpd in July, compared with about 4 million bpd in June and 1.6 million bpd in May.
- Security backdrop: at least 17 commercials ships came under attack in and around the strait in July and August, according to the International Maritime Organization, and at least four sailors died in those attacks and more than a dozen suffered injuries.
What to watch for
Watch whether CENTCOM's next monthly figure keeps pace with its own implied daily rate, or whether the gap to independent tracker estimates widens further. Also worth tracking: "there's a lack of solid information on exactly how much oil is moving through Hormuz due to the complexity of tracking ships during wartime," said Bridget Diakun, maritime intelligence and research director at Lloyd's List, a caveat that applies equally to the Pentagon's own count.
