Rubbish Check
Forbes Business · July 23, 2026
source“U.S. Monthly Trade Deficit 2nd Largest Since ‘Liberation Day’”
R3/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates Forbes' headline that the May trade deficit was the "2nd largest since Liberation Day" a 3/10 because the $103.65 billion figure and the ranking are accurate, but the framing omits that this rise follows an unusually low Q1 base and is driven mostly by an AI-hardware import surge and a gold-export slump, not tariffs themselves.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The headline's comparative claim checks out against the numbers in the piece, so this isn't spin in the sense of a misleading figure. It earns points off only because anchoring the story to "Liberation Day" implies a tariff-driven narrative when the article's own reporting shows the real movers were computer parts, digital storage devices and a gold-export pullback, while the low base the deficit is rising from (the lowest Q1 deficit since 2020) stays buried in the body.
What actually happened
The U.S. trade deficit hit $103.65 billion in May, the second straight monthly increase after three months of unusually low deficits earlier in the year. It was the second-highest monthly deficit since March 2025, when companies front-loaded shipments ahead of the April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs. Only July's $117.13 billion figure was higher in that window.
Key facts
- May deficit: $103.65 billion, up from April's $82.46 billion and February's $58.42 billion.
- Only one higher month since Liberation Day: $117.13 billion last July.
- Q1 2026 deficit was the lowest since Q1 2020; year-to-date deficit remains below every year except 2021.
- Imports rose 3.79% month-on-month to the highest level since March 2025 (the month before the tariffs were announced).
- Computer parts imports rose $1.84 billion (+15.44% MoM), the largest total in at least two years; digital storage devices rose $1.65 billion (+35.14%).
- Exports fell 4.49% MoM, driven by a $5.93 billion (-25.19% MoM) drop in gold exports as 2025's record gold rally cools.
What to watch for
Watch whether the June/July trade release shows imports continuing to climb toward pre-tariff 2025 levels, which would confirm this is a normalization story rather than a fresh deterioration. Also watch whether gold exports stabilize or keep falling, since that swing alone accounts for a large share of the headline export decline, and whether AI-linked computer-parts and storage-device imports keep setting two-year highs, which points to data-center buildout rather than tariff policy as the deficit's real engine.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
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