Rubbish Check
The Independent (Business) · 9 August 2026 source
“UK economy set for another quarter of growth as ‘big picture’ shows resilience”
R5/ 10
Selective
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates The Independent's headline that the UK economy is "set for another quarter of growth" a 5/10 because the 0.4% Q2 figure is an economist forecast ahead of Thursday's ONS release, not confirmed data, and the "resilience" framing buries a weaker June driven by a construction slump and one-off boosts.
The Verdict
Selective. The headline lifts one economist's "big picture" resilience framing and presents projected growth as a near-settled fact, while the article's own detail shows June alone was propped up by erratic mining activity, a World Cup-driven spending shuffle, and a heatwave, with construction "dragging on growth" and services stagnating. That is a real distinction the headline erases.
What actually happened
This is a preview piece ahead of the ONS's Thursday GDP release, not a report on published data. Economists surveyed by the paper expect Q2 (April to June) GDP to have grown, largely because a strong first quarter and forecast-beating momentum built up before June's slowdown. Within that quarter, the story flags a genuinely weaker June: falling construction activity, stagnant services and industrial output, offset by a spike in "erratic" mining output.
Key facts
- Some economists think GDP will have increased 0.4% for the second quarter, between April and June, following a 0.6% rise in GDP for the first three months of 2026.
- Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood is expecting monthly GDP to dip by 0.1% in June, "reversing the 0.1% gain in May, as a sharp fall in construction activity drags on growth, while services and industrial production stagnate."
- RSM UK's Thomas Pugh expects services to have been dragged down by a fall in hospitality activity even with the World Cup running, as "consumers were likely switching away from restaurants towards pubs to watch the World Cup, rather than increasing the total amount of spending."
- Pugh forecasts monthly GDP up 0.1% in June, "helped by a big jump in erratic mining activity," which he says would be "enough to deliver 0.4% growth for Q2… as strong momentum from Q1 and consumers smoothing through higher inflation helped to support solid growth."
- Services strengthened in May, largely from professional services and scientific research and development, and factories have been stockpiling ahead of anticipated shortages and price rises, which helped keep growth elevated.
What to watch for
- The actual ONS release lands Thursday: if the print misses 0.4% or June's monthly figure turns negative as Wood predicts, the "resilience" framing will look premature.
- Watch whether the "erratic mining activity" boost that Pugh flags as propping up the quarter gets revised away, a classic one-off distortion that inflates a headline number.
- Track how coverage treats the construction slump and hospitality drag once actual data lands, those are the parts this preview buries beneath the quote about "the big picture."
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.