Rubbish Check
Daily Mail Money · 21 August 2026
source“Unexpected spike in borrowing delivers further blow to Burnham as deficit topped £1.8bn last month”
R6/ 10
Spin-heavy
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Daily Mail's claim that a July borrowing "spike" delivers a "blow to Burnham" a 6/10 because the ONS's own release shows borrowing was actually lower year-on-year and debt fell as a share of GDP, both facts the Mail omits while pinning the story on the Prime Minister rather than the Chancellor managing the Budget.
The Verdict
Spin-heavy. The £1.8bn July figure and the miss against the OBR's forecast are real and correctly reported, but the framing buries the ONS's own qualifier that borrowing this financial year is running below last year's pace, and personalises a Treasury story onto Burnham when every other outlet frames it as pressure on Chancellor Healey ahead of his Budget.
What actually happened
The ONS reported public sector net borrowing of £1.8bn in July 2026, against expectations of roughly zero and an OBR forecast of a £500m surplus. Year-to-date borrowing of £56.7bn is £2.3bn above the OBR's March forecast, and public debt stood at just under £3trillion.
Key facts
- July borrowing: Borrowing was £1.8 billion in July 2026; this was £0.7 billion (68.7%) more than in July 2025, and £2.3 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast.
- Financial-year-to-date: Borrowing was £56.7 billion in the financial year (FY) to July 2026; this was £6.0 billion (9.6%) less than in the same period last year, but £2.3 billion above the OBR forecast. This yoy improvement is the omission at the heart of the headline's framing.
- Debt-to-GDP actually fell: Public sector net debt was provisionally estimated at £2,984.9 billion at the end of July, almost £96 billion more than a year earlier… However, debt as a percentage of the economy stood at 94.1%, 0.8 percentage points lower than a year ago.
- ONS's chief economist directly contradicts the "blow" framing: Public sector borrowing was lower in the financial year to date than in the same period last year, both in total and as a share of the economy.
- Record tax take: the ONS said self-assessed income tax receipts totalled a record £17.1 billion last month, £1.7 billion more than in July 2025.
- Spending vs receipts: Public sector spending rose by £5.6 billion year-on-year to £115.3 billion, while receipts increased by £4.8 billion to £113.5 billion.
What to watch for
- Chancellor Healey's Budget lands on 28 October; watch whether coverage keeps framing this as a "Burnham" story or shifts to the Chancellor, who actually controls fiscal levers.
- Gilt yields, not the July print, are the bigger constraint: economists warn rising borrowing costs are already eating into headroom ahead of that Budget.
- Self-assessment payments can slip between July and August, so the ONS itself flags treating the two months together before drawing firm conclusions.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
