Rubbish Check
CNBC Top News · September 15, 2026
source“No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey”
R2/ 10
Lightly altered
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates CNBC's claim that "the Fed will hike at least two times over the next year" a 2/10 because the underlying survey data (55% of respondents expecting more than one hike, up from 46% expecting even one hike last month) genuinely supports a majority-forecasts-multiple-hikes framing, with the headline's only stretch being "will hike" standing in for "surveyed economists expect."
The Verdict
Lightly altered. The headline compresses "a majority of surveyed economists expect more than one hike" into the punchier "the Fed will hike at least two times," which reads slightly more certain than a 29-person opinion poll warrants. But the "according to CNBC survey" tag is right there in the headline, and the underlying number, 55% expecting more than a single hike, does clear the bar for "majority." This is a headline doing normal headline-compression, not spin.
What actually happened
CNBC's monthly Fed Survey of 29 economists, fund managers and strategists found expectations for Fed rate hikes jumped sharply month-over-month, driven by a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Chairman Kevin Warsh, surging oil prices, and inflation that has failed to cool. Respondents now see inflation as broadening beyond energy, and most expect the Strait of Hormuz disruption and elevated oil prices to persist for months.
Key facts
- A majority of respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey now forecast at least two rate hikes over the next one year, with a third predicting three or more.
- Last month just 46% expected a hike ahead; that's grown to 86%, with 55% expecting more than a single hike.
- CPI forecasts rose for both 2026 and 2027, with the average forecast rising to near 3.5% for this year and then settling in at 2.85% in 2027.
- Despite the shift to forecasts for multiple hikes, the growth outlook has barely moved: recession probability estimates remain unchanged at an average 29% over the next 12 months, and GDP is still seen around 2.25% this year and next.
- Roughly three-quarters of respondents now see the inflation problem as broader than just energy prices.
What to watch for
- Watch whether the growth and stock forecasts (S&P 500 seen rising 8% next year) actually hold up if the Fed delivers the hikes the survey now expects, since tighter policy typically has to slow growth to bite on inflation.
- The Fed's own decision lands this week; if the FOMC hikes only once, or holds, this survey-based "two hikes" framing will need revisiting fast.
- Track whether the Strait of Hormuz/oil-price assumption baked into these forecasts actually persists past the "at least a month" respondents expect.
About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
