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Daily Mail Money · 14 September 2026 source

“Energy bills could surge 25% to over £2,000 in January thanks to rising wholesale costs”

R5/ 10
Selective
Rubbish Rating — 1 = base fact, 10 = pure rubbish
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In short
Rubbish Talk rates the Daily Mail's claim that energy bills "could surge 25%" in January a 5/10 because that figure comes from a single Bloomberg Economics estimate, while the two named industry forecasters in the article's own body, E.ON and Ovo Energy, both put the rise at roughly 18%.
The Verdict
Selective. The 25% and "£2,150" numbers in the headline are real, but they are the outlier of three forecasts quoted in the piece, not a consensus. E.ON and Ovo, the only two firms with published numbers, both land around 18% and roughly £2,027-£2,041. The headline leads with the biggest scare figure from an unnamed Bloomberg Economics note and buries the more concrete, lower industry estimates several paragraphs down, alongside the plain admission that "no figures have been confirmed officially."

What actually happened

Wholesale gas and oil prices have jumped following disruption in the Middle East, and analysts expect Ofgem's January price cap to rise further after October's confirmed 4% increase. No official cap figure exists yet: Ofgem's next announcement is due in late November, and Cornwall Insight, the forecaster media typically treats as most authoritative, has not yet published its next projection.

Key facts

  • An average household is facing a 4 per cent increase in their energy bills to £1,723 per year from October, and is now expected to rise by a further £427 to approximately £2,150 in the new year, according to Bloomberg Economics analysis cited in the piece, which is the source of the 25% figure.
  • E.ON predicts the energy price cap for January 2027 will be more than £300 higher, reaching £2,027, calling it a rise of nearly 18 per cent from October's cap, confirmed on E.ON's own prediction page as an £304 increase to £2,027.
  • Ovo Energy has forecast the January 2027 price cap could be as high as £2,041 for the year, a rise of £318 on the October cap, which is roughly 18.4%, not 25%.
  • No figures have been confirmed officially, but the predicted sizeable increase in energy bills for people on standard variable tariffs looks set to emerge at a time when mortgage rates are rising.
  • Cornwall Insight will not be publishing their next energy price cap forecasts until the end of this month, meaning the most-watched independent forecaster has no number in play yet.
  • Approximately 35 per cent of households, or 11 million, are on fixed energy tariffs, while roughly 22 million households in England, Wales and Scotland are on tariffs affected by the price cap, so the headline figure does not apply to over a third of households at all.

What to watch for

Watch for Cornwall Insight's own forecast, due late September, which will be the figure most other outlets anchor to next; if it lands nearer 18% than 25%, the Bloomberg number will look like the outlier it already is. Also watch whether Ofgem's actual November announcement narrows toward the E.ON/Ovo range rather than the higher Bloomberg estimate, and whether any government support (the Warm Home Discount extension mentioned) offsets the headline figure for lower-income households.

About this scoreThe R-Score is Rubbish Talk's editorial opinion on how far a headline's framing sits from what the underlying facts support. It is a judgement about presentation and emphasis, not an allegation that any outlet has acted dishonestly. Every figure we rely on is linked under Receipts so you can check it yourself.
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