In short
Rubbish Talk rates BBC Business's claim that the state pension is "likely to top £13,000 a year as UK wage growth slows to 3.9%" a 2/10, because both figures match the ONS's own release and the article discloses the triple lock mechanism, the tax threshold breach, and dissenting economist views in the same piece.
The Verdict
Lightly altered. This is close to a base-fact headline: both numbers in it (£13,000, 3.9%) are lifted straight from the ONS release and the triple-lock arithmetic, and the article immediately unpacks the mechanism rather than leaving it mysterious. The only iteration away from clean is compressing "wage growth including bonuses" into unqualified "wage growth," and pairing a pension rise with a slowdown as if they were opposing forces when the triple lock is designed to track wages regardless of direction.
What actually happened
The annual growth in total earnings including bonuses was 3.9% in May to July 2026, down from 4.2% on the previous three-month period, and annual growth in employees' average earnings was 3.5% for regular earnings excluding bonuses. Under the triple lock, this 3.9% figure is expected to set April's state pension rise, pushing the full flat-rate pension above £13,000 a year for the first time and above the income tax personal allowance.
Key facts
- Wage growth (total pay, ONS): 3.9% in May-July 2026, down from 4.2% in April-June, per the ONS Average Weekly Earnings bulletin.
- Regular pay (excluding bonuses): 3.5%, the figure the ONS itself flags as more stable.
- Flat-rate state pension (post-2016 claimants): projected £250.70/week = £13,036.40/year, a rise of £488.
- Old basic state pension (pre-2016 claimants): projected £192.10/week = £9,989.20/year, a rise of £374.40.
- Personal allowance: £12,570, meaning the new flat-rate pension alone would exceed it and become taxable in principle.
- State pension spending: already £154bn this year, forecast to rise a further £600m/year by 2029-30.
- Only 1 in 16 pensioners would benefit from the government's tax-exemption pledge, saving about £91 each, per LCP analysis cited in the article.
What to watch for
Watch whether the Budget confirms how pensioners "who only just exceed the personal allowance" avoid a tax bill, since the mechanism remains undefined and LCP calls the current plan "a mess." Also watch the actual September ONS earnings/CPI print used for the final triple-lock calculation, since it could still shift the £13,036.40 figure before it's locked in.
